It now seems clear that whatever transposes in Copenhagen; major problems are looming. The skeptics have had a field day with the recently released hacked emails from an important research agency into climate change. The mere hint that some of the data was ‘corrected’ has proven more than sufficient justification for most deniers to stick to their guns. Indeed some have gone further and are now actively claiming success. Glenn Beck from Fox news is one such denier who has taken this path. His oversized ego just can’t help himself.
This dreaded truth of denial is alarming in its likely consequences. It is entirely possible to move towards a more energy efficient future through sufficient commitment by all world governments. With sufficient research and development it is possible to mitigate runaway climate change. Unfortunately and only because of the deniers, this future is unlikely.
What is more likely is this. This is what is required to play safe:
Keep global increases within 1.5c or 350ppm.
Anything less than this is quite frankly unacceptable for most credible scientists. It is certainly unacceptable for anyone else thinking about the welfare of the planets many species.
Whatever commitments are made at Copenhagen, these commitments are dependent on a handful of greenhouse gas contributors. These same contributors are currently the world’s biggest emitters or soon will be. (not necessarily by capita)
Number 1 is the US.
Number 2 is China.
Number 3 is the EU including Russia.
Number 4 is India.
Number 5 is the rest of Asia.
Number 6 is South America.
Number 7 is Africa
Number 8 is everyone else.
Let’s not spin words here. The US has some ground to make up ever since it unwisely decided to exit out of any Kyoto Protocol negotiations. Thankfully the previous US voice of ignorance is increasingly being superseded by voices of reason.
"Climate change negotiations started over 20 years ago," he said. "This is an incremental, progressive process so if you take the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)as a first milestone in the negotiating process, the Kyoto Protocol as the second milestone, I think that Copenhagen ought to be the third. Efforts for human kind to respond to climate change will not end in Copenhagen. They will continue. They need to continue."
Friday, December 11, 2009
Saturday, December 5, 2009
This kind of thinking is a fatal flaw.
Of late there have been several documentaries about saving energy. One such programme puts well off families in situations where they have to face the reality of having to do without.
What is quickly apparent is the general apathy and reluctance of the youth to participate with any degree of enthusiasm towards a new way of living. They have no real desire to reduce waste and move to a more sustainable lifestyle. This may be largely a result of previous apathy by their wealthy parents towards energy conservation.
The youth seem to have a strong desire to return to their old wasteful and lazy habits as soon as possible after the film crew have disappeared. There seems to be no attempt to take any issues around conservation seriously and a barely disguised wish that their parents’ recent attempts at changing their wasteful ways will become little more than a fleeting thought.
Perhaps I am being overly harsh on the youth generalisation, but I doubt it. The dreaded facts are the youth of today are at a serious disadvantage to the youth of the past. They have become accustomed to an easy life where many things about the facts of living are taken for granted. Life to them is all sugar coated and largely revolves around causal sex, friends and getting intoxicated. For everything else; you turn on the tap and water flows. After all, anything and everything that a person wants and desires is only a shop away. Of course as a youth you need money to shop successfully without undue hassles. This is where parents come in. indeed some youth would suggest that this is parent’s main purpose in life. Thankfully this rather selfish phase in youth does not normally last more than a few years unless reinforced. The rather unsettling issues surrounding working for a living or serious study soon brings the majority of youth to their senses. For the rest they soon learn that it is not always possible to get your own way and money is definitely something to be taken more seriously.
The problem is that by and large, things have been good in most developed countries for several generations. Sure there are exceptions, but on the whole this is all the youth know. This is what they have come to expect. When faced with looming problems associated with the waste of ‘good times’ there is a tendency to turn a blind eye or only make a token effort. Sacrifices may be involved and needed, but any serious sort of sacrifice will have to be made by someone else. Lifestyle is king, and any lifestyle choices that involve giving up gains such as long hot showers, plastic bags, and the convenience of supermarket shopping. (I dare not mention fast and large motor vehicles) This scenario is unlikely unless it is proven without reasonable doubt that such changes are necessary.
This kind of thinking is a fatal flaw. By the time any such doubt is removed, any hope of actually solving looming problems will be too little and far too late.
What is quickly apparent is the general apathy and reluctance of the youth to participate with any degree of enthusiasm towards a new way of living. They have no real desire to reduce waste and move to a more sustainable lifestyle. This may be largely a result of previous apathy by their wealthy parents towards energy conservation.
The youth seem to have a strong desire to return to their old wasteful and lazy habits as soon as possible after the film crew have disappeared. There seems to be no attempt to take any issues around conservation seriously and a barely disguised wish that their parents’ recent attempts at changing their wasteful ways will become little more than a fleeting thought.
Perhaps I am being overly harsh on the youth generalisation, but I doubt it. The dreaded facts are the youth of today are at a serious disadvantage to the youth of the past. They have become accustomed to an easy life where many things about the facts of living are taken for granted. Life to them is all sugar coated and largely revolves around causal sex, friends and getting intoxicated. For everything else; you turn on the tap and water flows. After all, anything and everything that a person wants and desires is only a shop away. Of course as a youth you need money to shop successfully without undue hassles. This is where parents come in. indeed some youth would suggest that this is parent’s main purpose in life. Thankfully this rather selfish phase in youth does not normally last more than a few years unless reinforced. The rather unsettling issues surrounding working for a living or serious study soon brings the majority of youth to their senses. For the rest they soon learn that it is not always possible to get your own way and money is definitely something to be taken more seriously.
The problem is that by and large, things have been good in most developed countries for several generations. Sure there are exceptions, but on the whole this is all the youth know. This is what they have come to expect. When faced with looming problems associated with the waste of ‘good times’ there is a tendency to turn a blind eye or only make a token effort. Sacrifices may be involved and needed, but any serious sort of sacrifice will have to be made by someone else. Lifestyle is king, and any lifestyle choices that involve giving up gains such as long hot showers, plastic bags, and the convenience of supermarket shopping. (I dare not mention fast and large motor vehicles) This scenario is unlikely unless it is proven without reasonable doubt that such changes are necessary.
This kind of thinking is a fatal flaw. By the time any such doubt is removed, any hope of actually solving looming problems will be too little and far too late.
Friday, December 4, 2009
Be warned:
This movement towards becoming more energy conscious may start slowly, but it will quickly become a major marketing force in coming years. It is simply a more responsible attitude for society to take.
It should be remembered that economically; Issues associated with climate change are a boon for builders, engineers, technicians and the entire construction and manufacturing industry. Massive amounts of investment are required in the move towards a more energy conscious society. It is almost akin to starting from scratch. Existing thinking about infrastructure is now largely obsolete. For example; thermal power stations will need to be replaced or modified completely in an effort to reduce carbon emissions.
Be warned: A time is fast approaching when rising sea levels, increased flooding and storms will begin to cause havoc with insurance policies. In the not too distant future, vast amounts of money will need to be spent on sea walls and flood prevention to keep the waters at bay. Then there are issues associated with lack of water. It bears not thinking about too much if you forced to leave in some locations around the globe.
It should be remembered that economically; Issues associated with climate change are a boon for builders, engineers, technicians and the entire construction and manufacturing industry. Massive amounts of investment are required in the move towards a more energy conscious society. It is almost akin to starting from scratch. Existing thinking about infrastructure is now largely obsolete. For example; thermal power stations will need to be replaced or modified completely in an effort to reduce carbon emissions.
Be warned: A time is fast approaching when rising sea levels, increased flooding and storms will begin to cause havoc with insurance policies. In the not too distant future, vast amounts of money will need to be spent on sea walls and flood prevention to keep the waters at bay. Then there are issues associated with lack of water. It bears not thinking about too much if you forced to leave in some locations around the globe.
Monday, November 30, 2009
scientists just doing their job?
"The collapse of communism was a disaster for the left. They embraced environmentalism as their new religion,"
Minchin said, sparking a blizzard of controversy.
Minchin is a red neck ‘liberal’ politician from the right in Australia. Liberal in this instance just means he supports less government intervention. You can see how an issue like climate change would tend to wind him up into overdrive.
However the chances of a left wing conspiracy seem remote. How about scientists just doing their job?
Postscript
Just as it is hard to accept the negatives in some relationships; it is equally difficult to accept that some of your opinions might be wrong. For example; accepting that man made climate change is real is a big ask for some people. For these people they prefer to escape into some other blissful state better known as denial and turning a 'selective' blind eye.
Hard as it is to believe as a credible scientist, but yes: in this blissful state it is even possible to think that the world is currently cooling, even as sea levels rise and glaziers melt at record rates.
Minchin said, sparking a blizzard of controversy.
Minchin is a red neck ‘liberal’ politician from the right in Australia. Liberal in this instance just means he supports less government intervention. You can see how an issue like climate change would tend to wind him up into overdrive.
However the chances of a left wing conspiracy seem remote. How about scientists just doing their job?
Postscript
Just as it is hard to accept the negatives in some relationships; it is equally difficult to accept that some of your opinions might be wrong. For example; accepting that man made climate change is real is a big ask for some people. For these people they prefer to escape into some other blissful state better known as denial and turning a 'selective' blind eye.
Hard as it is to believe as a credible scientist, but yes: in this blissful state it is even possible to think that the world is currently cooling, even as sea levels rise and glaziers melt at record rates.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
even more hot air
The chances of a successful outcome at Copenhagen have faded dramatically over recent weeks. The talks seem fated to become nothing more than even more hot air.
The dreaded facts are the number one emitter of co2 is energy sourced from fossil fuels. Of all the energy sources, burning coal is the largest contributor to man made greenhouse gases. Therefore it makes a lot of scientific and economic sense to target coal first. (read Carbon sequestration)
Once this technology is perfected, then a dramatic commitment to electric powered vehicles can be achieved by all world governments by 2020. In this way achieving 350ppm is possible by 2100.
More dreaded facts:
The dreaded facts are the number one emitter of co2 is energy sourced from fossil fuels. Of all the energy sources, burning coal is the largest contributor to man made greenhouse gases. Therefore it makes a lot of scientific and economic sense to target coal first. (read Carbon sequestration)
Once this technology is perfected, then a dramatic commitment to electric powered vehicles can be achieved by all world governments by 2020. In this way achieving 350ppm is possible by 2100.
More dreaded facts:
per-capita-anthropogenic-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country-for-the-year-2000-including-land
Thursday, August 13, 2009
no such thing as ‘soft’ targets
To have any realistic chance of meeting global targets of 40% by 2020; there can be no such thing as ‘soft’ targets. Target number one; must be the countries contributing the most to greenhouse gases per capita. This paints an ominous picture to most countries in the OECD. Within these countries needing to make drastic changes, the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions must be targeted first. In New Zealand the choices are especially grim. New Zealand must reduce the number of farm animals and plant more native trees. (and improve the rail network)
How to achieve this feat is not necessarily difficult if action is taken today. It is all remarkably easy in some ways. Taxes are introduced on all sources of greenhouse gas emissions. For example take the average animal farmer. They are taxed per farm animal on a strictly scientific basis. Farmers simply pass this ‘fart’ tax on directly to the buyers.
It goes without saying, that doubling the price of meat is likely to have a dramatic impact on demand. Animal farmers by necessity will need to reduce supply and will face potential economic hardship. However the ‘fart’ taxes collected are used solely to compensate animal farmers. Taxes collected are ploughed back into suitable research and development. Many farmers are encouraged to diversify. For example, suitable land may be brought by the government and replanted in native trees.
How to achieve this feat is not necessarily difficult if action is taken today. It is all remarkably easy in some ways. Taxes are introduced on all sources of greenhouse gas emissions. For example take the average animal farmer. They are taxed per farm animal on a strictly scientific basis. Farmers simply pass this ‘fart’ tax on directly to the buyers.
It goes without saying, that doubling the price of meat is likely to have a dramatic impact on demand. Animal farmers by necessity will need to reduce supply and will face potential economic hardship. However the ‘fart’ taxes collected are used solely to compensate animal farmers. Taxes collected are ploughed back into suitable research and development. Many farmers are encouraged to diversify. For example, suitable land may be brought by the government and replanted in native trees.
Ministry for the Environment (NZ) does not have the solution
Thursday, August 6, 2009
carbon tax at source
It is highly probable that come the end of the year; the ETS or emission trading scheme will become more mainstream. Either that or a carbon tax at source.
These are the improbable targets. To keep the average temperature increase within 2c by the year 2100.
An easy target you might suggest. However to achieve this remarkable feat will require some remarkable changes. Somehow the world has do reduce global greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2020. (ie 40% below 1990) OR RISK A 6C RISE instead.
Here in New Zealand, it should be noted that 50% of our emissions are in the form of methane gas. (ie farm animals)
How is it going to be possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and at the same time have a growing global economy?
These are the improbable targets. To keep the average temperature increase within 2c by the year 2100.
An easy target you might suggest. However to achieve this remarkable feat will require some remarkable changes. Somehow the world has do reduce global greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2020. (ie 40% below 1990) OR RISK A 6C RISE instead.
Here in New Zealand, it should be noted that 50% of our emissions are in the form of methane gas. (ie farm animals)
How is it going to be possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and at the same time have a growing global economy?
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