Fires, flooding fit into climate change predictions

This summer's weather disasters fit into the pattern forecast by climate scientists in key 2007 report on global warming
NEW YORK — Floods, fires, melting ice and feverish heat: From smoke-choked Moscow to water-logged Pakistan, the planet seems to be having a midsummer breakdown.
The weather-related cataclysms of July and August fit patterns predicted by climate scientists, the Geneva-based World Meteorological Organization says — although those scientists always shy from tying individual disasters directly to global warming.
The experts now see an urgent need for better ways to forecast extreme events like Russia's heat wave and the record deluge devastating Pakistan. They'll discuss such tools in meetings this month and next in Europe and America.
"There is no time to waste," because societies must be equipped to deal with global warming, British government climatologist Peter Stott said.
The U.N.'s network of climate scientists — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — has long predicted that rising global temperatures would produce more frequent and intense heat waves, and more intense rainfalls. In its latest assessment, in 2007, the Nobel Prize-winning panel said these trends "have already been observed."
Still, climatologists generally refrain from blaming global warming for this drought or that flood, because so many other factors also affect the day's weather.
Stott and NASA's Gavin Schmidt, at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York, said it's better to think in terms of odds: Warming might double the chances for heat waves, for example. "That is exactly what's happening," Schmidt said, "a lot more warm extremes and less cold extremes."
The World Meteorological Organization noted that this summer's events fit the international scientists' projections of "more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."
Russia
• This summer: It's been the hottest summer ever recorded in Russia, with Moscow temperatures topping 100 degrees Fahrenheit for the first time. Russia's drought has sparked hundreds of wildfires in forests and dried peat bogs, blanketing Moscow with smog that finally lifted Thursday after six days. The Russian capital's death rate doubled to 700 people a day at one point. The drought reduced Russia's wheat harvest by more than one-third.
Forecasters said Thursday the heat wave could break next week, though cooler weather and rainfall might come too late to save winter crops.
• The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report: The panel predicted a doubling of disastrous droughts in Russia this century and cited studies foreseeing catastrophic fires in dry years. It also said Russia would suffer large crop losses.
Pakistan
• This summer: The heaviest monsoon rains on record — 12 inches in one 36-hour period — have sent rivers rampaging over huge swaths of countryside, flooding thousands of villages. It has left 14 million Pakistanis homeless or otherwise affected, and killed 1,500.
A shipload of U.S. Marines and helicopters arrived to boost relief efforts Thursday, but Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said his country needs more international help to cope with one of the worst natural disasters in its history.
• The 2007 report: The climate panel said rains have grown heavier for 40 years over northern Pakistan — a warmer atmosphere can hold and discharge more water — and it predicted greater flooding this century in South Asia's monsoon region.
China
• This summer: China is experiencing its worst floods in decades, particularly in the northwest province of Gansu. There, floods and landslides last weekend killed more than 1,100 people with more than 600 others missing, feared swept away or buried beneath mud and debris. More rain was forecast in the coming days — up to 3.5 inches was expected today — and China's National Weather Center said the threat of more landslides was "relatively large."
Flooding in China has killed more than 2,000 people this year.
• The 2007 report: The climate panel said that rains had increased in northwest China by up to 33 percent since 1961, and floods nationwide had increased sevenfold since the '50s. It predicted still more frequent flooding this century.
Arctic
• This summer: Researchers last week spotted a 100-square-mile chunk of ice calved off from the Petermann Glacier in Greenland. It was the most massive ice island to break away in the Arctic in a half-century of observation.
In the Arctic Ocean, satellite data show the ocean area covered by ice last month was the second-lowest ever recorded for July.
• The 2007 report: Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reported this spring that the Arctic ice cover is retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the 18 computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in preparing its 2007 assessments.
Changes in the ice sheet "are happening fast, and we are definitely losing more ice mass than we had anticipated," NASA scientist Isabella Velicogna said

environmental disaster

Five weeks later and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is getting worse. At the same time; clean up efforts have barely begun. This is a man made environmental disaster that thwarts all others in its likely implications. Serious questions are now being asked by many Americans. Not that any answers are likely to make any difference to the dreaded facts. All attempts by BP so far to cap the oil flow have met with few hard results. The latest attempt to blow debris into the well head directly is thus far not meeting expectations. There is a risk that it could be making things much worse.

Vast quantities of Oil and gas continue to flow with some pressure to the surface of the sea floor without undue hindrance. As you can imagine, 5 weeks without due hindrance means that one heck of a lot of oil and gas have escaped to the surface. This is estimated between (BP) 5000 and (Oil Volume Experts) 70000 plus barrels of oil each and every day.

Highly toxic dispersant s may have broken down some of the oil to prevent it from floating to the surface so easily, but it appears that the dispersant s in use are highly classified. They are relatively untested, and never tested in such large quantities as have been used thus far. One thing you can guarantee though. They are bound to be deadly toxic to many species. (much like the oil they are dispersing)
As for the notion of using boons to halt the advance of any oil that may make its way to the shore via the ocean surface; it is not working. It would appear that the effective staff training on competent boon use by BP was highly exaggerated. (much like BP's impressive safety record)

For anyone still holding shares in BP, now could be a good time to sell. The likely costs associated with this mess simply boggle the mind. All these mounting costs are directly the responsibility of BP.

The implications are vast and also boggle the mind. Where now is all this oil going to be found now that deep sea oil is proving so hazardous? (assuming we still need vast quantities of oil to help run our economies)

risk management

I may be speaking out of turn here, but this is definitely something to ponder.

It would appear from recent events that responsible risk management seems to be a difficult subject for banks to master.

As for the giant oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. A disaster such as this could theoretically never happen.

Who exactly is in charge of this risk assessment process? I only ask this question because whoever is in charge. These people need to be fired...(or at least demoted)

The dreaded truth is that only a small minority are really that interested in politics. The rest think it is kind of cool to pass on this subject and talk about something else.

The bottom line is that these people who choose to be ignorant about politics are only slightly more evolved than sheep. The world is the way it is because of politicians and the sad fact is that we elected them there.
We only have ourselves to blame for the way things are turning out.

disillusionment

Disillusionment is a common phenomenon on the path towards enlightenment. At least it seems that way from many Eastern scriptures. The same story is repeated over and over again. One day a king or noble person is awakened by being exposed to higher teachings. They begin to question their existence and their own personal identification with their current worldly body and worldly experiences. They start to renounce the world and the current roles expected of them by society.
After a period of time they lose this disillusionment after having become awakened again.

Alas these Eastern scriptures were written a long time ago. We have few kings today and perhaps less noble men. Disillusionment may be a relatively common phenomenon in modern time, but enlightenment?
No doubt there is no shortage of volunteers to put their hands up as qualified for the position, but perhaps the real state of enlightenment can only be imagined today. Perhaps this is a sad fact for the 21st century. All enlightened people that have inhabited this planet are now no longer physically with us.

That leaves those seeking enlightenment or peace of mind in a rather difficult predicament. Who are you going to follow? I guess this all depends on who you can trust. Politicians seem as unlikely a candidate as priests at the moment. You certainly wouldn’t trust guarantee’s by some large oil companies. I guess that leaves green movements who at least have the planets long term interests at heart.

Copenhagen Accord 4.30pm

Eyjafjallajökull Volcanic Eruption

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Eyjafjallajökull Volcanic Eruption

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Obama transcript on climate: Act boldly

Good morning. It's an honor for me to join this distinguished group of leaders from nations around the world. We come together here in Copenhagen because climate change poses a grave and growing danger to our people. You would not be here unless you -- like me -- were convinced that this danger is real. This is not fiction, this is science. Unchecked, climate change will pose unacceptable risks to our security, our economies and our planet. That much we know.

So the question before us is no longer the nature of the challenge -- the question is our capacity to meet it. For while the reality of climate change is not in doubt, our ability to take collective action hangs in the balance.

I believe that we can act boldly, and decisively, in the face of this common threat. And that is why I have come here today....
. . .

To conclude, we all agree on this:

2. We agree that deep cuts in global emISSIOns are required according to science, and as
documented by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report with a view to reduce global emissions by 50
per cent in 2050 below 1990 levels, taking into account the right to equitable access to atmospheric
space. We should cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national emissions as soon as
possible, recognizing that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries and
bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and
overriding priorities of developing countries and that a low-emission development strategy is
indispensable to sustainable development.

For the full agreement in detail, you are welcome to go to:

Copenhagen Accord 4.30pm

This is what is required to play safe:

It now seems clear that whatever transposes in Copenhagen; major problems are looming. The skeptics have had a field day with the recently released hacked emails from an important research agency into climate change. The mere hint that some of the data was ‘corrected’ has proven more than sufficient justification for most deniers to stick to their guns. Indeed some have gone further and are now actively claiming success. Glenn Beck from Fox news is one such denier who has taken this path. His oversized ego just can’t help himself.

This dreaded truth of denial is alarming in its likely consequences. It is entirely possible to move towards a more energy efficient future through sufficient commitment by all world governments. With sufficient research and development it is possible to mitigate runaway climate change. Unfortunately and only because of the deniers, this future is unlikely.

What is more likely is this. This is what is required to play safe:
Keep global increases within 1.5c or 350ppm.
Anything less than this is quite frankly unacceptable for most credible scientists. It is certainly unacceptable for anyone else thinking about the welfare of the planets many species.

Whatever commitments are made at Copenhagen, these commitments are dependent on a handful of greenhouse gas contributors. These same contributors are currently the world’s biggest emitters or soon will be. (not necessarily by capita)
Number 1 is the US.
Number 2 is China.
Number 3 is the EU including Russia.
Number 4 is India.
Number 5 is the rest of Asia.
Number 6 is South America.
Number 7 is Africa
Number 8 is everyone else.

Let’s not spin words here. The US has some ground to make up ever since it unwisely decided to exit out of any Kyoto Protocol negotiations. Thankfully the previous US voice of ignorance is increasingly being superseded by voices of reason.


"Climate change negotiations started over 20 years ago," he said. "This is an incremental, progressive process so if you take the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)as a first milestone in the negotiating process, the Kyoto Protocol as the second milestone, I think that Copenhagen ought to be the third. Efforts for human kind to respond to climate change will not end in Copenhagen. They will continue. They need to continue."